Farmers today have described the suspension of the cull of Pembrokeshire's badger population, ostensibly to combat bovine TB, as a 'disaster for farming', according to this report. I'm sorry but I just do not for one moment buy that. The link between bovine TB and badgers is merely accepted wisdom based on, at best, anecdotal and/or coincidental data.
But even if you refute this strange farmers' reasoning with real evidence, or just subscribe to a different interpretation of existing-though-discrete data points, you are laughed at simply because its not the fashionable view. (Remind you of any other field of 'settled science'?). Furthermore, even if one member of the badger-cow TB camp could spurn the hysterical anti-badgerism, that person would still, without a shadow of a doubt, advocate the boneheaded position 'ah yes, maybe so, but better to be safe than sorry, right?'. Again, this reminds us eerily of another scientific cop out.
And sorry, but no, it isn't 'better to be safe than sorry' especially in this case because it is very likely that you are, in fact, still ignorant, more vulnerable having been lulled into a false sense of security by the massive badger bloodletting, and with one more innocent native British species of wildlife pushed onto the endangered list as a consequence of pitchforks and burning torches approach to countryside and agricultural management. A lose-lose-lose scenario. And it's pathetic. Why? Well, one South African (?) expert in the field, Martin Hancox, writes:
Accepted “Wisdom” after 35 years repetition is that badgers are the MAIN Reservoir of TB, and transmission is one-way badger to cow. The Emperor’s New Clothes, no-one apparently can “SEE” that thanks to the cattle TB crisis, the exact opposite is true: cattle are the MAIN reservoir and transmission is 99-100% cow to cow (and spillover to badgers and deer etc).
Cows give badgers TB!
The rest of his stout defence of Meles meles or Brother Brock is entertaining, quite compelling and well worth the read. Hats off must go not only to him but also to the Liberal Democrat AM, Peter Black, who has helped to halt the cull in Pembroke, and thus, quite possibly (since Pembroke was intended as some kind of trial), the rest of Wales, if not Britain. In addition, praise must go to those farmers who, while still strangely believing implicitly in the badger-bovine TB link, have the common sense and conservation-minded decency not to repeat the mistakes of the past.
You'd think it would have dawned on them why culls have failed for forty years when they have been tried wouldn't you? Well, it hasn't, so we'll have to spell it out for them: IT'S NOT THE BADGERS' FAULT, STUPID!
Not going to get through to them any time soon though, is it? It's very sad how destructive people can be in their ignorance, but too proud to stop themselves even when the truth is right there staring them in the face. Pity.
Fraser Nelson, who finally appears to have twigged that another five years of Labour would probably be a Bad Thing, has posted on Brown's latest nonsense address to the Welsh Labourists. In it, Brown seems to be suggesting that Wales has never had it so good than under Labour, citing the creation of 100,000 phantom jobs and talking, laughably, about his own family's 'poverty', though he has to go back eighty-odd years to his grandparent's generation to find at least the suggestion of it. Nelson gives the lie very effectively to this complacent, vacuous claptrap, and to Brown's murky Welsh job creation figures.
Gordon Brown does not have much of a personal “backstory” but he does talk about his family. When he’s feeling guilty about something, he mentions his father. But today, speaking to the Welsh Labour Party, he again talks about a figure we heard about a few days ago: his grandfather.
“Like so many here I come from a family whose grandfather went without work during much of the 1930s. A grandfather whose small savings gave his son, my father, the chance of an education, the first in our family to go to university. And the lesson of those days is that even in the worst of times families helped each other, supported each other, came to the aid of each other through thousands of acts of friendship caring and support. And that reveals the most important lesson of all; that it’s not markets that create morals: morals spring from the compassion of our hearts”
Given how utterly unremarkable it is to have grandparents who had a tough time in the 1930s, one can only presume that Brown’s aim is to contrast this with Cameron’s grandparents. But playing the “poor family background” card really is pushing it. As a Church of Scotland minister, Brown’s father was in a position to give his family a very comfortable life. Brown simply does not have a poverty song to sing.
Most strikingly, Brown tries to tell Wales how good they’ve had it under Labour with 100,000 more jobs. But, as nationally, how many of these were imported? Surely matters is to what extent economic growth helped those on benefits in Wales. In its case, not very much – as the below graph shows (data from DWP)
On the one hand - the 1930s - I can confirm that Nelson is absolutely right. My great grandfather on my dad's side was a timber salesman in Cumbria. During the Depression, he could only afford to send one of his two sons to university. My grandfather, being the youngest, drew the short straw. Fortunately for him, however, he excelled in school and managed to win a place with the Civil Service, where he enjoyed a long and pretty illustrious career. The only hand-up he'd ever had was a decent education in a selective school. I wonder how he would have fared in Brown's Britain. Mickey Mouse GCSEs followed by Mickey Mouse A-levels followed by - well - followed by nothing. Britain has the highest levels of youth unemployment in Europe (see chart left).
Which brings us to Brown's second laughable claim, this time about Welsh jobs and how 'good' life is in Wales thanks to his largesse with taxpayers' money. The graph to which Nelson refers tells us all we need to know (see above). In terms of benefit dependency, things have only got worse in Wales. Nelson is also right about Brown's pie in the sky jobs figures. If they have been created, then they've been imported. While their numbers have certainly thinned over the past 12 months, and while I am very pleased to count some of them as friends, including my next door neighbours, the fact is that the torrent of Polish immigration to my own town sucked up any spare, low-paid jobs. Mind you, the real reason for this is, if the Poles I know are anything to go on, that they have a powerful work ethic entirely absent from the psychology of your average, undereducated young Welsh man or woman, and this syndrome is repeated throughout Britain.
Poles depend on work in the same way that a large portion of Welsh men and women depend on benefits. Brown and his ilk depend on the latter's votes - and straightforward lies - to maintain power, so the likelihood is that he will want to keep it that way, however morally bankrupt the arrangement clearly is.
So it's certainly time for change in Wales and while I am an ardent Conservative, I am also a realist. The Tories aren't part of the political landscape in this part of the world. They aren't even on the radar. So I will be voting Plaid Cymru in the general election. A tactical vote, I freely admit, but not a wasted one if it helps to kick out Labour from government, and Brown out of Number 10. I am also a bit of a fan of Elfyn Llwyd, who is one of the most impressive figures in Welsh (and Westminster) politics. And I'm a fan of Plaid generally, even if I can never agree with one or two of their policies concerning the future of the Principality.
The point is, all the people I've spoken to over the past year in this part of Carmarthenshire appear to have reached a similar conclusion. They're all ready to send Brown a powerful message about just how 'good' they think it's been under his trainwreck regime, and, in many cases, how totally betrayed they feel.
Shockingly pathetic though this laughable thing is, that's actually very positive, Tory wise.
Is it true that the best Labour can do is this lamest of the lame attack vids?
Watch it, be embarrassed and then realise that with this dead Labour government you are dealing with people who, because of an unhappy accident of democracy, don't care how much damage is done - in the "Labour" name.
Before the election, in their pathetic, tired, desperate search for re-election takes place, the people will have their way.
In Swansea, Labour is a busted flush.
But Labour doesn't really give shit one about anything apart from their own jobs. The local Labour boys care only about the prospect of losing the jobs they no longer deserve.
They had better watch out: the world is gunning for them.
I visited the Big Pit mining museum (seen at the start of this clip) a few months ago. It was damp. Wish I'd seen this video before I went. "That is - a crap job." Lol.
--Update-- Just looked at this post again and realised that some people might form the wrong impression about the Pwll Mawr National Coal Museum on the strength of it. I just want to say that I really had a marvellous time there and enjoyed its many outstanding and informative exhibitions, such as the Pithead Baths and the mine itself (to name but two of many), immensely, all the while looked after by a friendly, expert staff, some of whom were miners themselves before the entire industry sadly fell victim to a combination of the cold equations of global economics and the collateral damage that is always the by-product of ideological warfare.
Wales, especially West Wales, still boasts about 300 year's worth of the cleanest coal in the world, you know. Perhaps we'll need it one day.
Apologies for my hen's teeth posting but managing the workload of a full time MA and trying to earn a crust with a bit of teaching can occasionally be somewhat time-consuming - and knackering to boot. It's been particularly hectic this week for some reason - and I have a tricky little test coming up too so there's no respite for a while.
Enough of that. I want to talk about the latest tasty morsal of polling news that indicates Wales could actually be about to cast off the Labour yoke - or near as damn it.
CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 12%, PC 15%, says Yougov's latest Wales poll commissioned by the University of Aberystwyth. Full results in PDF form can be found here.
There's little to add to the Half Blood Welshman's excellent post on this devasting news for Welsh Labour. It's certainly worth a read. Here's an extract.
The Conservatives should be thrilled that they are doing so well in Wales - surprised, it has to be said, but thrilled. It doesn't make up for their continuing woes in Scotland, but it does something to counter to myth that they have become exclusively the party of the South of England. 50% more votes and four times as many seats - if they can pull it off - would be a major coup for Nick Bourne, Cheryl Gillan and David Cameron. From that point of view, this poll probably finally explodes the idea of Bourne standing aside before 2011, when he can perform an orderly handover on his terms.
Plaid Cymru will probably be disappointed (although Che tries to put a brave face on it). Their vote is up, but not by a lot. Ultimately, the aim of Plaid Cymru must surely have been to become the alternative to Labour as the leading party in Wales, and yet they are just barely in third place. Although they would pick up a gratifying clutch of seats, including the greatest prize in Ynys Mon, on these numbers, there will probably be whisperings that were they not tied to a tired and increasingly divided Labour government that they would be doing much, much better. They will also be dissatisfied that the avowedly Unionist message of the Conservatives - many of whose candidates and all of whose current MPs remain fiercely unitary in outlook, never mind Unionist - seems not to be a problem for a large number of voters, something that may be an issue given the upcoming report on the future of the Assembly (due on November 18th, but also foreshadowed according to rumour in the notorious Dr. Hain's speech on Thursday). You have to wonder where that will go in the present atmosphere.
The Liberal Democrats will be devastated. There is simply no way to dress up losing a third of your voters as anything other than a major blow. How that plays out in terms of seats remains a bit of a guess, but even so Kirsty Williams will not be happy. Hopefully this will be the spark they need to really galvanise a better campaign - such work as is going on looks to be poorly focussed to this outsider - to try and get some more publicity. The Liberal Democrats in the last 15 years have become big political players - they should not really just sit back and wait for the "oxygen of publicity" with an election campaign (I'm sure they don't intend to, but that's how it looks from here).
That leaves Labour. They lose a fifth of their votes - a third of their seats. The difference may be explained by the fact that they would be driven back on their Valleys heartlands, with a handful of outliers in Clwyd. This means that the last figure should also be of deep concern to the incoming leader, whoever that may be (my money is still on Hart). That is the others - on 7%, a near doubling of their previous attainment of 4%. If that is concentrated in a small handful of seats - say Caerphilly or Wrexham - there is the potential, to put it no more strongly than that, of another Blaenau Gwent style upset. Of course, we don't know exactly how it breaks down. It may be boosts for the BNP and UKIP, in which case it will likely prove irrelevant. Then again, it may not. The challenge facing the new leader remains huge, particularly if the (let's face it) badly-run contest, the divisions it has opened and the loss of Rhodri Morgan's personal presence cause the vote to sag further. Moreover, the idea that Wales is finally deserting Labour will be a crushing blow to morale - possibly on a national level as well as a local one.
That really is an excellent analysis. All I can say with certain knowledge is that in the towns of Carmarthenshire, particularly among my mother's generation, the notion of a world without Labour was once (and for many no-doubt still is) inconceivable. It is a political outcome that was - as I know from a conversation I had not so long ago with a pretty famous Welsh writer, for instance - to put it bluntly, completely off the mental radar of people here, many of whose parents were, so I am told, slightly to the political left of John Roose Williams.
The times they definitely are a-changin', however, as the poll unequivocably demonstrates. To cut a long story short, what they feel about this Labour government is what we all feel, for one reason or another: absolute betrayal.
The results of what is clearly the deep soul searching currently underway in Wales among, it seems, all sections of society are entirely unpredictable insofar as who, if Labour is about to be defeated, will fill their boots.
Confronted by this pair of hissing buggars while out walking the dog earlier on this (beautiful) evening. Swans are incredible animals - very elegant and all that - but why are they so bloody bad-tempered? I should have taken one for my pot. But then the queen would have had me arrested and sent to the Tower - or something. "Orf with his head!"
Sorry it's so dark - the camera on my phone is pants.
Amazing sky.
PS: There are loads of swans on this lake. They float around in formation like a squadron of light cruisers. They only bombard the shore from the air, though. Curious.
PPS: Swans, I suppose, are just like Wales: spectacular, but moody. I wouldn't have it any other way :)
"Jaw-dropping", I suppose, is one way of describing this latest piece of Welsh Labourist nasty lunacy. I simply could not believe my pork pies when I read in the Western Mail what a Carmarthen councillor (and parliamentary hopeful, would you believe - not any more!) has been up to. Have a butchers:
WELSH Labour confirmed last night it was investigating a councillor and brass band chairman in connection with a “foul and abusive” phone message that has been posted on YouTube.
Carmarthen Labour councillor Marc Scaife, who has put his name forward for selection as the party’s parliamentary candidate in Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, left on Wednesday for a controversial tour of Libya with Burry Port Town Band.
The band have been criticised for continuing with the tour – part of the 40th anniversary celebrations of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi coming to power – after the release last week of the man convicted of the Lockerbie bombing.
In the phone message, a man who identifies himself as Marc Scaife, uses highly offensive language to berate a 19-year-old member of the band who pulled out of the Libyan tour at a late stage, creating a perceived security problem.
The caller is heard saying: “Listen very f****** carefully. You are a f****** idiot...There’s a massive security risk because of you. Do you realise what’s actually going on? Is anything going on in your tiny little mind?
“We are supposed to be playing in front of some of the biggest world leaders out there. Security is 100% tight and it includes the British Royal Family.
“I expect you to sort this f****** thing out. You go up there, you sort it out or expect a call from MI5. All right?
“I’ve had some serious explaining to do because of your irresponsible actions. Call me back as soon as you get this f****** message or I’ll be driving over to your parents’ house tonight to speak to them.
“Wise up, s***head.”
The band member who pulled out of the trip posted the audio tape of the phone call on YouTube. Subsequent messages on the site in the name of Mr Scaife said: “You forgot to tell everybody that you withdrew from the tour on Saturday with just four days to go, leaving us with a gap to fill. Your irresponsibility beggars belief. I’m surprised that you are happy to broadcast this fact.
“I don’t regret losing my temper with you – you deserved it. I stick to my opinions given in the recorded message. I suggest you listen to the actual words used and take note.
“I suspect you are going to get many similar confrontations from others in the future due to your ineptitude. I suggest you abandon your cry-baby ‘I’m just 19’ approach and act like a man – learn to act responsibly!”
The band member responds, saying: “I have not tried to adopt any cry-baby approach. I am merely pointing out that if I as a teenager can try to act in a mature and civilised manner to sort things out, there is something seriously wrong when a man over twice my age resorts to abusive and childlike rants. Indeed displaying your message on YouTube may be considered immature, but I am only trying to make people aware of the vile and foul attitude I have been dealing with.”
Explaining his position in another posting, the band member said: “I had to withdraw from the trip to Libya due to working commitments and the prospect of losing my job, something I was unwilling to risk in the current economic climate.
“I warned Marc Scaife this might be the case over a week ago and confirmed this on Friday. I have acknowledged the inconvenience this could cause and have been most apologetic.”
It is understood that the band member was one of a number of musicians recruited to go to Libya because long-standing members were unavailable.
A Welsh Labour spokesman said: “The party disassociates itself from the foul and abusive language used in this telephone message. We will be contacting Mr Scaife in order to verify the authenticity of the message and to seek an explanation for this situation.
“The matter concerned is not a Welsh Labour event over which the party has any control. This is not the behaviour we would expect of any elected representative of Welsh Labour.”
Mr Scaife had last night not responded to a detailed message left on his mobile phone by the Western Mail.
According to the Burry Port Town Band’s website, Mr Scaife is 41 and plays solo trombone. He has previously played with the Suffolk Fire Service, Colchester, Crwbin and Clacton brass bands. His occupation is listed as “real estate, Bulgaria”, although it is understood that he works as a relief chef.
Bad enough a Labourist brass band has flown out to Tripoli to "celebrate" Gaddafi's 40 year-long dictatorship (why?!). If nothing else, it's heroically bad timing. But to bully and verbally abuse a 19 year old just because he rightly dropped out after being threatened with unemployment is simply evil. And the reference to MI5 is just bizarre.
What kind of people are thugs like Scaife? I'll tell you: they're the kind of people who should be removed from office immediately. Scaife should not only be kicked-out, he should be told to stay put in Libya. Why not? If he, like so many other modern Labourists, feels such a strong affinity for tyrannical regimes, he should try living under one for a (long, long) while.
I just wonder what ideas he'll be bringing home with him, is all. Not healthy ones for him, given his proclivity for violent outbursts, or for anyone his council governs in sleepy old Burry Port, I would hazard. But don't take my word for it, listen to the voicemail yourself on the newspaper's website.
Unbelievable.
Btw, the Scaife person makes a fleeting appearance in this ITN report from two days ago. How would you like him as your future MP? Quite.
North East: North West:Yorkshire & Humber: East Midlands:West Midlands:Eastern: South West:Wales :) :)South East:London:EU Wide:Graphics (c) BBC, Sky
So that's it, then. Labour wiped-out in most of England and Wales - and two seats for the BNP national socialist villains. Incredible, really. Could there have been a more complete and damning indictment of Brown's total, utter failure in everything he has ever touched? The country is now in a far, far worse condition, politically and economically, than it was when Labour took power in 1997.
The Golden Legacy Labour inherited has been well and truly destroyed, perhaps permanently, by Brown. The body politic is in a state of febrile volatility, thanks to Brown. The socioeconomic and democratic health of the nation is now so bad, frankly anything could happen - if Brown stays. If he goes, as he surely must, there is just a chance the damage can be limited and then repaired. If he clings on, Terminator-style, as Dan Hannan said, then things can only get much, much worse.
We're into real high stakes politics now. David Cameron better step-up, for all our sakes.
