Friday, 9 October 2009

Maybe I Was Wrong...

CON 44% (+4) LAB 27% (-4) LD 17%(-1)

I'm more than happy to admit that maybe I was wrong yesterday about that speech by Cameron. According to this latest of Yougov's daily polls, I was. But I'm not so sure. I'm still convinced that Cameron shouldn't overplay the "pain" message. For one thing, this poll could simply be evidence that the message has got through to people - and that he means business.

One other point: I haven't had a chance to check the press or the blogs today so maybe someone else has already noticed it, but Cameron looked and sounded ill during his speech. He was gulping down water, his voice sounded weaker than usual and he looked plain rough. Perhaps that was all part of the act, but I doubt it.

So, the next big question is: has David Cameron caught swine flu!


  1. I noticed that Mr Cameron was certainly coughing quite a bit (during breaks for applause) and getting quite hoarse by the end of his speech - it did indeed sound like he was losing his voice. It wasn't overly dramatic but perhaps, if he has a bug, that's why he chose to stay put behind his lectern: something to hold on to and somewhere to keep the glass of water. Nonetheless, it was a good performance and a solid speech. The polls seem to variable though - ranging from the 17% lead you're quoting to the 14% we're more used to. I'm thinking the 17% is, for the moment, an outlier (although, obviously, I hope not).

  2. Well said, Tony. I am a convert: it was a timely speech. I therefore think that the polls aren't lying: we can be confident in the trend of the widening gap.


  3. Labour's bounce in the polls last week was a dead cat bounce that lasted for one day, same thing again this week. I think maybe the message has finally got through, D, and that Brown or anyone else in Labour, for that matter, are not the people they want to steer the economy, especially in this recession where it looks like we're headed for dip number two, as predicted. The recession should, according to the experts, be at rock bottom by next March or April - perfect timing for a landslide Tory victory. I know there are people, and quite rightly so, who think landslides are a bad thing for democracy - God knows, Blair proved that - but we desperately need a landslide this time around to put right what Labour have ruined and repeal their nonsensical legislation once and for all. I just hope Cameron has the guts to do it, once elected.

  4. BS: The upshot is that I believe you agree with me.

    That must be a bummer.

  5. Sorry, btw, BS - that was intended as a joke, mate :)

  6. No problem, D, I do agree whole-heartedly.

  7. Well, thought it was a good speech myself. Not a tour-de-force but a solid statement of intent and a kicking of the disastrous labour reign of the past 12 years. Not the best speech of the conference though, Clarke, Johnson and Osbourne can equally share that honour. But the onus is most certainly on Cameron, he simply has to deliver in his first term.

  8. I agree, UB. I must have had some pretty serious bees in my bonnet, Gawd only knows about what, when I posted that irritable negative stuff.

    As you say, it was a good speech. On balance :)

  9. Exactly. He could have gone for the razzmatazz, all bells and whistles approach, no podium, without notes (He does this better than anyone, Clegg looked like a lost lamb when he tried it), etc. But he judged the mood of the country right, a serious man for serious times (Yes Gordon, he's taken over that ground as well). In the past Cameron at conference has been a mix of Tony Blair and Lloyd George, holding the conference in the palm of his hand with carefully crafted words and flawless presentation. This time, he went more Churchill and Thatcher, upfront and unashamed. He needed those skills of the first two to get himself into this electable position. The fact that when it comes to actual leadership of the country in a time of crisis he is edging towards the latter pair is an encouraging sign. It says he cares more about being right than being popular. Maybe I've over-analysed it.

    Mind you, as I've now had access to the internet restored and have been able to watch all the major conference speeches again in full I must revise my thoughts on the other speeches and award George Osborne (The 'Boy George' moniker won't sit well any more) top honours. As I blogged myself recently, I truly believe he may have the sharpest political brain inside the westminister village. For once we had a politician being brutally honest and not trying to sugarcoat the pain to come and you know what....I think the public were ready for it. It's nice to be treated like a grownup for once.


Any thoughts?